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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to NO 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NO 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.28 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model