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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New Orleans Saints
4th & 4 at the 32
New Orleans Saints 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 0
What Actually Happened
(3:40) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 83-J.Johnson.
The Three Options
GO
+0.85 EP
What Happened
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.39 EP
- 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.37 EP
KICK
+1.06 EP
Model's Pick
- 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
- 23% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT
-0.46 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
