Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 83

Detroit Lions 27 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to MIA 23, Center-47-S.Daly. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 45 for 22 yards (49-C.Board). PENALTY on MIA-15-J.Phillips, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.91 EP
72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 83, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model