Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DET defense: +0.213 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- MIA offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): +0.152 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- DET offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
MIA
DET
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:03 TD DET (13:03) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – DET 6
- Q1 05:40 TD DET (5:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 32-D.Swift for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – DET 13
- Q1 00:55 TD MIA (:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – DET 14
- Q2 13:49 TD DET (13:49) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-94-C.Wilkins, Defensive Offside, declined. MIA 7 – DET 20
- Q2 11:35 TD MIA (11:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – DET 21
- Q2 07:07 FG DET (7:07) 17-M.Badgley 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. MIA 14 – DET 24
- Q2 02:10 FG MIA (2:10) 7-J.Sanders 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. MIA 17 – DET 24
- Q2 00:03 FG DET (:03) 17-M.Badgley 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. MIA 17 – DET 27
- Q3 09:14 TD MIA (9:14) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 30-A.Ingold. 30-A.Ingold up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-24-A.Oruwariye, Defensive Offside, declined. MIA 23 – DET 27
- Q3 00:17 TD MIA (:17) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-74-L.Eichenberg was injured during the play. He is Out. MIA 30 – DET 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 50%
(8:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to DET 35 for 9 yards (41-A.Parker).
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Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 24Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 88%
(7:07) 17-M.Badgley 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 85%
(2:10) 7-J.Sanders 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
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Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 67Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62%
(1:49) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 38-C.Moore. 38-C.Moore left end to DET 46 for 13 yards (27-K.Crossen; 22-E.Campbell).
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Q4 DET 4th & 19 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:21) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to MIA 23, Center-47-S.Daly. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 45 for 22 yards (49-C.Board). PENALTY on MIA-15-J.Phillips, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 34.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 46Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 44%
(8:28) 4-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to DET 8, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-K.Raymond to DET 12 for 4 yards (27-K.Crossen).
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Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 35 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 71%
(2:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 8-J.Reynolds.