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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(8:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to DET 35 for 9 yards (41-A.Parker).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model