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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 51

New York Giants 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to SEA 2, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-35-J.Layne.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.82 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model