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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2022-10-30 · 16:25 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NYG
39.0%
SEA
61.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Geno Smith (SEA) +0.111 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.055 EPA/dropback
  • SEA defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
SEA 25
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NYG

Daniel Bellinger TE Out Eye
Ben Bredeson G Out Knee
Cordale Flott CB Out Calf
Kenny Golladay WR Out Knee
Evan Neal T Out Knee
Oshane Ximines LB Out Quadricep
Tyre Phillips T Questionable Toe
Jason Pinnock S Questionable Foot
Leonard Williams DT Questionable Elbow

SEA

Nick Bellore LB Out Concussion
Penny Hart WR Doubtful Hamstring
Phil Haynes G Questionable Concussion
Sidney Jones CB Questionable Groin
Poona Ford DE Questionable Ankle
Gabe Jackson G Questionable Hip
Tyler Lockett WR Questionable Hamstring
DK Metcalf WR Questionable Knee
Darrell Taylor LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 13
–
SEA 27

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:12 TD SEA (12:12) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – SEA 6
  • Q2 05:55 TD NYG (5:55) 65-N.Gates and 77-J.Anderson reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – SEA 7
  • Q2 01:42 FG SEA (1:42) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. NYG 7 – SEA 10
  • Q3 06:08 FG NYG (6:08) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 10 – SEA 10
  • Q3 02:47 FG SEA (2:47) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. NYG 10 – SEA 13
  • Q4 11:22 FG NYG (11:22) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 13 – SEA 13
  • Q4 09:24 TD SEA (9:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [5-K.Thibodeaux]. NYG 13 – SEA 19
  • Q4 05:31 TD SEA (5:31) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – SEA 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:52) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to NYG 18, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-R.James to NYG 28 for 10 yards (57-C.Barton).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:25) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to SEA 14, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:53) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to NYG 23, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-R.James to SEA 35 for 42 yards (83-D.Young; 25-T.Homer). PENALTY on NYG-47-C.Brown, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 35.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:19) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to SEA 33, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 41 for 8 yards (20-J.Love).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 48%

    (4:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:13) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to SEA 23, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 31 for 8 yards (35-J.Layne).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 92%

    (14:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett to NYG 14 for 4 yards (30-D.Holmes).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (12:42) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-W.Dissly to NYG 3 for 3 yards (41-M.McFadden).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 24%

    (6:47) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to SEA 2, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-35-J.Layne.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 18 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to NYG 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-R.James to NYG 24 for no gain (89-W.Dissly). FUMBLES (89-W.Dissly), touched at NYG 21, RECOVERED by SEA-35-J.Blount at NYG 19.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (1:42) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:18) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to SEA 25, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (6:08) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 70%

    (2:47) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

    (11:22) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (7:44) 6-J.Gillan punts 69 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to NYG 21, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-R.James to NYG 30 for 9 yards (35-J.Blount, 25-T.Homer). FUMBLES (25-T.Homer), touched at NYG 30, RECOVERED by SEA-89-W.Dissly at NYG 32. NYG-80-R.James was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 78%

    (2:38) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 84-M.Johnson (57-C.Barton).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to NYG 13, Center-46-C.Tinker. 30-D.Holmes ran ob at NYG 13 for no gain (83-D.Young). SEA-26-R.Neal was injured during the play.