Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to NYG 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-R.James to NYG 24 for no gain (89-W.Dissly). FUMBLES (89-W.Dissly), touched at NYG 21, RECOVERED by SEA-35-J.Blount at NYG 19.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model