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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 17

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.09 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model