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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 77

New York Giants 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(:18) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to SEA 25, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.39 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model