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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to NYG 18, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-R.James to NYG 28 for 10 yards (57-C.Barton).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.35 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model