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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 27

New York Giants 10 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.65 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model