Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 20 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to NYG 21, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-R.James to NYG 30 for 9 yards (35-J.Blount, 25-T.Homer). FUMBLES (25-T.Homer), touched at NYG 30, RECOVERED by SEA-89-W.Dissly at NYG 32. NYG-80-R.James was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 76, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model