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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 29

New York Giants 13 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 84-M.Johnson (57-C.Barton).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.87 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP