Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 27 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to NYG 13, Center-46-C.Tinker. 30-D.Holmes ran ob at NYG 13 for no gain (83-D.Young). SEA-26-R.Neal was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.45 EP
63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 70, worth -2.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model