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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 41

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.77 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP