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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 77

New York Giants 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to SEA 23, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 31 for 8 yards (35-J.Layne).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model