Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 17 at the 82

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(13:21) 6-P.Harvin punts 55 yards to PHI 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-B.Covey to PHI 32 for 5 yards (13-M.Boykin).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 82, worth -5.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model