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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2022-10-30 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 11.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

PIT
24.7%
PHI
75.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • PHI on 7 more days rest than PIT
  • Kenny Pickett (PIT): -0.069 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 18
–
PHI 27
Projected margin: PHI by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

PIT

Larry Ogunjobi DT Out Knee
Levi Wallace CB Out Shoulder
Chris Boswell K Questionable Groin
Josh Jackson CB Questionable Groin

PHI

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 13
–
PHI 35

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:31 TD PHI (9:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 11-A.Brown for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 02:01 TD PIT (2:01) 11-C.Claypool pass short left to 44-D.Watt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [57-T.Edwards]. PIT 6 – PHI 7
  • Q2 12:53 TD PHI (12:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – PHI 13
  • Q2 06:20 TD PHI (6:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-11-A.Brown, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. PIT 7 – PHI 20
  • Q2 01:06 FG PIT (1:06) 4-N.Sciba 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 10 – PHI 21
  • Q3 13:01 TD PHI (13:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 3-Z.Pascal for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 10 – PHI 27
  • Q3 05:59 FG PIT (5:59) 4-N.Sciba 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 13 – PHI 28
  • Q4 12:41 TD PHI (12:41) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – PHI 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:21) 6-P.Harvin punts 55 yards to PHI 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-B.Covey to PHI 32 for 5 yards (13-M.Boykin).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 48%

    (10:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to PIT 39 for 5 yards (34-T.Edmunds).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (2:01) 11-C.Claypool pass short left to 44-D.Watt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [57-T.Edwards].

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:11) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to PHI 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 6-D.Smith pushed ob at PHI 39 for 3 yards (27-M.Allen).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:59) 8-A.Siposs punts 49 yards to PIT 12, Center-45-R.Lovato. 82-S.Sims to PIT 22 for 10 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:29) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to PHI 40, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (4:19) 8-K.Pickett up the middle to PIT 47 for 3 yards (90-J.Davis).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (1:06) 4-N.Sciba 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (12:19) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 27-M.Allen. 27-M.Allen up the middle to PIT 37 for 4 yards (54-S.Bradley).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 55%

    (8:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris pushed ob at PHI 32 for 9 yards (23-C.Gardner-Johnson).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (5:59) 4-N.Sciba 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 40%

    (1:59) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to PIT 1, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-27-Z.McPhearson.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 16 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 30%

    (9:30) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to PHI 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:19) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to PIT 49, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-45-R.Lovato.