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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 8-K.Pickett up the middle to PIT 47 for 3 yards (90-J.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.93 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 56, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model