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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 20

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 4-N.Sciba 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.80 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model