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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(12:19) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 27-M.Allen. 27-M.Allen up the middle to PIT 37 for 4 yards (54-S.Bradley).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model