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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(8:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris pushed ob at PHI 32 for 9 yards (23-C.Gardner-Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model