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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 44

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to PIT 39 for 5 yards (34-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.40 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model