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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 11

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 4-N.Sciba 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.53 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP