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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 35

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to PHI 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 51, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model