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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 93

Philadelphia Eagles 35 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to PIT 49, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-45-R.Lovato.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.98 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 51, worth -2.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model