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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 1

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 11-C.Claypool pass short left to 44-D.Watt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [57-T.Edwards].

The Three Options

GO +3.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model