Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:19) 11-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to SF 27, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.64 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model