Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- LA defense: -0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- LA offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- SF defense: -0.012 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- LA on 7 more days rest than SF
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.134 EPA/dropback in prior starts
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 8
SF
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 00:16 TD LA (:16) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – LA 6
- Q2 12:17 TD SF (12:17) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – LA 7
- Q2 06:41 TD LA (6:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – LA 13
- Q2 01:04 FG SF (1:04) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – LA 14
- Q3 01:58 TD SF (1:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – LA 14
- Q4 12:11 TD SF (12:11) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – LA 14
- Q4 06:48 TD SF (6:48) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 30 – LA 14
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LA 4th & 12 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(13:19) 11-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to SF 27, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 52%
(9:38) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 31 yards to LA 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 12 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%
(1:04) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 28%
(12:54) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to LA 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(8:56) 11-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to SF 4, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-R.McCloud to SF 12 for 8 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 16 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(:27) 11-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to SF 31, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-R.McCloud to SF 42 for 11 yards (33-N.Scott).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(9:55) 11-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to SF 27, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 79 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(4:55) 11-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to SF 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-R.McCloud to SF 36 for 15 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 35-J.Hummel).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 58 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(2:32) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to LA 9, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-B.Powell to LA 9 for no gain (26-S.Womack).
See the full breakdown →
