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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2022-10-30 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

SF
43.2%
LA
56.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA on 7 more days rest than SF
  • LA offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA defense: -0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.134 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SF 21
–
LA 24
Projected margin: LA by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

SF

Arik Armstead DT Out Foot
Dre Greenlaw LB Out Calf
Kyle Juszczyk FB Out Finger
Deebo Samuel WR Out Hamstring
Jauan Jennings WR Questionable Hamstring
Jason Verrett CB Questionable Knee

LA

Cam Akers RB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Brandon Powell WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 31
–
LA 14

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:16 TD LA (:16) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – LA 6
  • Q2 12:17 TD SF (12:17) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – LA 7
  • Q2 06:41 TD LA (6:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – LA 13
  • Q2 01:04 FG SF (1:04) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – LA 14
  • Q3 01:58 TD SF (1:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – LA 14
  • Q4 12:11 TD SF (12:11) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – LA 14
  • Q4 06:48 TD SF (6:48) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 30 – LA 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 12 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:19) 11-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to SF 27, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 52%

    (9:38) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 31 yards to LA 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (1:04) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 28%

    (12:54) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to LA 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:56) 11-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to SF 4, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-R.McCloud to SF 12 for 8 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:27) 11-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to SF 31, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-R.McCloud to SF 42 for 11 yards (33-N.Scott).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:55) 11-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to SF 27, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:55) 11-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to SF 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-R.McCloud to SF 36 for 15 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 35-J.Hummel).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:32) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to LA 9, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-B.Powell to LA 9 for no gain (26-S.Womack).