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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 53

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to LA 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -3.25 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model