Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 58

Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(8:56) 11-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to SF 4, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-R.McCloud to SF 12 for 8 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.65 EP
59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model