Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 81

Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 17

(:27) 11-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to SF 31, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-R.McCloud to SF 42 for 11 yards (33-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model