4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 11-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to SF 27, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.39 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model