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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 43

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 31 yards to LA 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.49 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model