Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 79

Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 31

(4:55) 11-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to SF 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-R.McCloud to SF 36 for 15 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 35-J.Hummel).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.06 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model