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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to HOU 4, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 10 for 6 yards (29-J.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.33 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP