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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Houston Texans

HC Lovie Smith
Sunday 2022-10-30 · 16:05 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

TEN
54.1%
HOU
45.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: +0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Davis Mills (HOU): -0.077 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Malik Willis (TEN): +0.014 EPA/dropback in prior starts (TEN starting Malik Willis in place of Ryan Tannehill)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 23
–
HOU 21
Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

TEN

Tory Carter FB Out Neck
Rashad Weaver LB Out Back
Jeffery Simmons DT Questionable Ankle
Ryan Tannehill QB Questionable Ankle

HOU

A.J. Cann G Questionable Illness
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Chest
Nico Collins WR Questionable Groin
Brandin Cooks WR Questionable Wrist
Kenyon Green G Questionable Shoulder
Justin McCray C Questionable Hand
Rasheem Green DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 17
–
HOU 10

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:43 FG HOU (10:43) 7-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. TEN 0 – HOU 3
  • Q2 04:29 TD TEN (4:29) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – HOU 3
  • Q3 06:34 TD TEN (6:34) 75-D.Radunz reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – HOU 3
  • Q4 11:11 FG TEN (11:11) 14-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 17 – HOU 3
  • Q4 00:21 TD HOU (:21) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 31-D.Pierce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – HOU 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 80%

    (11:31) 14-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:39) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 53 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 18 for 7 yards (40-D.Hilliard). PENALTY on HOU-23-E.Murray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 11. Penalty on HOU-29-M.Stewart, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:02) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to TEN 38, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods to TEN 41 for 3 yards (1-T.Smith). FUMBLES (1-T.Smith), RECOVERED by HOU-33-D.Ogunbowale at TEN 42.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:06) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to HOU 4, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 10 for 6 yards (29-J.Thompson).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to TEN 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 37 for 16 yards (23-E.Murray).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 52%

    (:20) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 14 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods to TEN 25 for 10 yards (32-G.Wallow). PENALTY on HOU-36-J.Owens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 25.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (6:34) 75-D.Radunz reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 17 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 28%

    (3:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (11:11) 14-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:20) 11-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods to TEN 31 for 11 yards (46-J.Weeks; 53-B.Cashman).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:15) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to HOU 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 19 for 12 yards (25-H.Haskins).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 13 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:28) 11-C.Johnston punts 34 yards to 50, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-46-J.Weeks.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 50%

    (4:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 34 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 81 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:27) 31-D.Pierce left end to HOU 22 for 3 yards (26-K.Fulton, 51-D.Long).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 13-B.Cooks to TEN 48 for 26 yards (31-K.Byard).