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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 17 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 34 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.91 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP