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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 81

Houston Texans 3 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 31-D.Pierce left end to HOU 22 for 3 yards (26-K.Fulton, 51-D.Long).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.69 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 38, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model