Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 53 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 18 for 7 yards (40-D.Hilliard). PENALTY on HOU-23-E.Murray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 11. Penalty on HOU-29-M.Stewart, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.77 EP
53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model