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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 92

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to TEN 38, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods to TEN 41 for 3 yards (1-T.Smith). FUMBLES (1-T.Smith), RECOVERED by HOU-33-D.Ogunbowale at TEN 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.96 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 92, worth -5.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model