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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 49

Washington Commanders 7 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(12:16) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle to 50 for -1 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.87 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model