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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2022-10-30 · 16:25 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

WAS
58.5%
IND
41.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Sam Ehlinger (IND) -0.353 vs Taylor Heinicke (WAS) -0.114 EPA/dropback (IND starting Sam Ehlinger in place of Matt Ryan)
  • WAS offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
IND 19
Projected margin: WAS by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

WAS

Jahan Dotson WR Out Hamstring
Cole Holcomb LB Out Foot
William Jackson CB Out Back
Cole Turner TE Out Concussion
Dyami Brown WR Questionable Groin
Saahdiq Charles G Questionable Illness
Logan Thomas TE Questionable Calf

IND

Kwity Paye DE Out Ankle
Matt Ryan QB Out right Shoulder
Grant Stuard LB Out Pectoral
Kenny Moore CB Questionable Finger

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 17
–
IND 16

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:17 FG IND (14:17) 7-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. WAS 0 – IND 3
  • Q2 11:01 TD WAS (11:01) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 24-A.Gibson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – IND 3
  • Q3 07:18 FG IND (7:18) 7-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. WAS 7 – IND 6
  • Q4 12:35 FG IND (12:35) 7-C.McLaughlin 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. WAS 7 – IND 9
  • Q4 11:17 TD IND (11:17) (Shotgun) 21-N.Hines left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – IND 15
  • Q4 04:59 FG WAS (4:59) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 10 – IND 16
  • Q4 00:26 TD WAS (:26) 4-T.Heinicke right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – IND 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:47) 6-M.Haack punts 62 yards to WAS 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-D.Milne pushed ob at WAS 17 for 12 yards (58-B.Okereke).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:03) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to IND 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:32) 6-M.Haack punts 61 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-D.Milne to WAS 30 for 10 yards (33-D.Flowers).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 14 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 47%

    (5:23) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to IND 8, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 13 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 84%

    (14:17) 7-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:32) 6-M.Haack punts 48 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:21) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to IND 10, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 15-K.Coutee to IND 19 for 9 yards (58-S.Toney; 34-C.Holmes).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (:32) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to IND 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 37%

    (12:16) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle to 50 for -1 yards (45-E.Speed).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 91%

    (7:18) 7-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:53) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to IND 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 18 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:26) 5-T.Way punts 65 yards to IND 28, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 15-K.Coutee to IND 38 for 10 yards (58-S.Toney).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 99%

    (12:35) 7-C.McLaughlin 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 40%

    (7:32) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 10-C.Samuel pushed ob at IND 30 for 18 yards (23-K.Moore).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 97%

    (4:59) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:47) 6-M.Haack punts 56 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-D.Milne pushed ob at WAS 11 for 1 yard (33-D.Flowers).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 10-C.Samuel to WAS 32 for 12 yards (26-R.McLeod).