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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 71

Washington Commanders 7 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to IND 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.38 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model