4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 2

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 7-C.McLaughlin 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +3.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.68 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP