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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 10

Washington Commanders 7 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.37 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 10, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP