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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 6-M.Haack punts 56 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-D.Milne pushed ob at WAS 11 for 1 yard (33-D.Flowers).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP