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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 80

Washington Commanders 10 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 10-C.Samuel to WAS 32 for 12 yards (26-R.McLeod).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.76 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 80, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 37, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model