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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 81

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 6-M.Haack punts 61 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-D.Milne to WAS 30 for 10 yards (33-D.Flowers).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.18 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model